Distribution Methods¶

Detrending Measurement Data¶

Most meterological variables used in SMRF have an underlying elevational gradient. Therefore, all of the distribution methods can estimate the gradient from the measurement data and apply the elevational gradient to the DEM during distribution. Here, the theory of how the elevational gradient is calculated, removed from the data, and reapplied after distribution is explained. All the distribution methods follow this pattern and detrending can be ignored by setting detrend: False in the configuration.

Calculating the Elevational Trend

The elevational trend for meterological stations is calculated using all available stations in the modeling domain. A line is fit to the measurement data with the slope as the elevational gradient (Fig. 2a, Fig. 3a, and Fig. 4a). The slope can be constrained as positive, negative, or no constraint.

Gridded datasets have significantly more information than point measurements. Therefore, the approach is slightly different for calculating the elevational trend line. To limit the number of grid cells that contribute to the elevational trend, only those grid cells within the mask are used. This ensures that only the grid cells within the basin boundary contribute to the estimation of the elevational trend line.

Distributing the Residuals

The point measurements minus the elevational trend at the stations (or grid cell’s) elevation is the measurement residual. The residuals are then distributed using the desired distribution method (Fig. 2b, Fig. 3b, and Fig. 4b) and show the deviance from the estimated elevational trend.

Retrending the Distributed Residuals

The distributed residuals are added to the elevational trend line evaluated at each of the DEM grid points (Fig. 2c, Fig. 3c, and Fig. 4c). This produces a distributed value that has the underlying elevational trend in the measurement data but also takes into account local changes in that value.

Note

Constraints can be placed on the elevational trend to be either positive, negative, or no constraint. However, if a constraint is applied and the measurement data does not fit the constraint (for example negavite trend for air temp but there is a positive trend during an inversion or night time), then the slope of the trend line will be set to zero. This will distribute the data based on the underlying method and not apply any trends.

Methods¶

The methods outlined below will distribute the measurement data or distribute the residuals if detrending is applied. Once the values are distributed, the values can be used as is or retrended.

Inverse Distance Weighting¶

Fig. 2 Distribution of air temperature using inverse distance weighting. a) Air temperature as a function of elevation. b) Inverse distance weighting of the residuals. c) Retrending the residuals to the DEM elevation.¶

Inverse distance weighting takes the weighted average of the measurment data based on the inverse of the distance between the measurement location and the modeling grid [22]. For $N$ set of measurement locations, the value at any $x,y$ location can be calculated:

$u(x,y) = \frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{N} w_i(x,y)~u_i}{\sum\limits_{i=1}^{N}w(x,y)}$

where

$w_i(x,y) = \frac{1}{d_i(x,y)^p}$

and $d_i(x,y)$ is the distance between the model grid cell and the measurement location raised to a power of $p$ (typcially defaults to 2). The results of the inverse distance weighting, $u(x,y)$ , is shown in Figure 2b.

Detrended Kriging¶

Fig. 3 Distribution of precipitation using detrended kriging. a) Precipitation as a function of elevation. b) Kriging of the residuals. c) Retrending the residuals to the DEM elevation.¶

Detrended kriging is based on the work developed by Garen et al. (1994) [23].

Detrended kriging uses a model semivariogram based on the station locations to distribute the measurement data to the model domain. Before kriging can begin, a model semivariogram is developed from the measurement data that provides structure for the distribution. Given measurement data $Z$ for $N$ measurement points, the semivariogram $\hat{\gamma}$ is defined as:

$\hat{\gamma}( \mathbf{h} ) = \frac{1}{2m} \sum\limits_{i=1}^{m} [z(\mathbf{x}_i) - z(\mathbf{x}_i + \mathbf{h})]^2$

where $\mathbf{h}$ is the seperation vector between measurement points, $m$ is the number of points at lag $\mathbf{h}$ , and $z(\mathbf{x})$ and $z(\mathbf{x} + \mathbf{h})$ represent the measurement values at locations seperated by $\mathbf{h}$ . For the purposes of the detrended kriging within SMRF, $m$ will be one as all locations will have their unique lag distance $\mathbf{h}$ .

The kriging calculations require a semivariogram model to interpolate the measurement data. Detrended kriging uses a linear semivariogram $\tau(\mathbf{h}) = \tau_n + bh$ where $\tau_n$ is the nugget and $b$ is the slope of the line. A linear semivariogram model means that on average, $Z$ becomes increasing dissimilar at larger lag distances. With the linear semivariogram model, ordinary kriging methods are used to calculate the weights at each point through solving of a system of linear equations with the constraint of the weights summing to 1. See Garen et al. (1994) [23] or [24] for a review of oridinary kriging methods.

In this implementation of detrended kriging, simplifications are made based on the use of the linear semivariogram. With a linear semivariogram, the kriging weights are independent of the slope and nugget of the model, as the semivariogram is a function of only the lag distance. Therefore, this assumption simplifies the kriging weight calculations as $\hat{\gamma}( \mathbf{h} ) = h$ . There the weights only need to be calculated once when the current set of measurement locations change. The kriging weights are futher constrained to only use stations that are within close proximity to the estimation point.

Ordinary Kriging¶

Detrended kriging above is a specific application of ordinary kriging for distributing meterological data. A more generic kriging approach is to use PyKrige that supports 2D ordinary and universal kriging. See PyKrige documentation for more information and the configuration file reference for specific application within SMRF.

Gridded Interpolation¶

Fig. 4 Distribution of air temperature using gridded interpolation. a) Air temperature as a function of elevation. b) Linear interpolation of the residuals. c) Retrending the residuals to the DEM elevation.¶

Gridded interpolation was developed for gridded datasets that have orders of magnitude more data than station measurements (i.e. 3000 grid points for a gridded forecast). This ensures that the computions required for inverse distance weighting or detrended kriging are not performed to save memory and computational time. The interpolation uses scipy.interpolate.griddata (documentation here) to interpolate the values to the model domain. Four different interpolation methods can be used:

linear (default)
nearest neighbor
cubic 1-D
cubic 2-D

Input Data Wind Models